Qantas shares have rocketed 162% since COVID. Two numbers show it’s not too late to buy

Qantas Airways Limited (ASX: QAN) shares were understandably abandoned when COVID-19 first spread internationally in 2020.

Borders were closed, lockdowns were in place, and hardly anyone was flying domestically, let alone internationally.

But as the world started rolling out vaccinations and developing better treatments for the disease, Australians spent big to revive their travel dreams.

And the result?

The Qantas share price is now 162% higher than the trough it hit in the COVID crash of March 2020.

So is it too late to jump on the bandwagon?

‘Keep reaping the rewards’

There’s no doubt Australian households and businesses are hurting after 12 interest rate hikes in 14 months.

But eToro market analyst Josh Gilbert has noticed something curious.

“Despite consumers pulling back as household budgets are squeezed, the demand for travel is not subsiding.”

A casual visit to Sydney or Melbourne airport is a visual testament to this phenomenon. They are jam-packed with travellers, despite high fares and queues stretching out of the terminal.

This is why Gilbert reckons Qantas investors will “keep reaping the rewards”. 

This bullishness isn’t based all on just gut feel and anecdotal evidence though.

There is hard data to back it up.

“Commercial passenger jet fuel demand, a proxy for travel, is showing a 38% increase year-on-year in Asia, thanks in part to China’s re-opening, but a 21% increase worldwide,” said Gilbert.

“These numbers continue to climb week on week, meaning that as long as demand stays high, airliners can keep airfares elevated.”

All these reasons stack up to show the spectacular rise in the Qantas share price could be sustainable for a while longer.

“It’s a sign the airliner’s forecasted record profits may not be a flash-in-the-pan.”

Other analysts also agree Qantas shares are still cheap

Last week Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) analysts expressed their opinion that Qantas shares are still undervalued.

“Our estimated FY24e EPS sits 65% above pre-COVID levels. Despite this, QAN’s market capitalisation is 1% below pre-COVID levels — enterprise value 14% lower,” they said.

“We acknowledge broader macro uncertainty at this point in the cycle, but we believe the current share price does not reflect the group’s improved earnings capacity.”

The wider professional community agrees, with 14 out of 17 analysts currently surveyed on CMC Markets rating Qantas as a buy.